Editor’s Note: Today, we’re sharing an essay from Garett Baldwin, analyst with Commodity Supercycles, published by Stansberry Research, a corporate affiliate. As Garrett shows, the shale revolution transformed the energy markets. And while that revolution isn’t over, there are early signs it could be slowing. The country, and the world, needs to unlock new energy sources. And there’s a surprising source that’s getting new attention. If this thesis plays out, it could once again transform the energy markets, and cause stocks attached to it to soar.
George Mitchell was going to get gas out of that shale or go bankrupt trying.
Mitchell had run his own natural gas company going back to the 1950s.
His key producing field was in Wise County, Texas.
As an enterprising young man, Mitchell had bought the leasing rights to the field for a simple reason. No one else wanted it. The rock was like concrete – full of oil, but nothing could crack it to get the black gold out.
That didn’t stop him. Mitchell had a famous, fiery temper. He was also notoriously stubborn.
Plus, he had a plan to get the natural gas out.
He’d read an article about a new process called “hydraulic fracturing.”
The idea was to drill into the ground, then deliver enough force to the hard rock formations around the well to break them up, stimulating the release of oil or gas trapped inside them. You could do that with a high-pressure mix of water, sand, and chemicals.
Mitchell started using the technique at Wise Field. And it worked – though it came with steep costs and razor-thin margins.
For 30 years, the Wise Field was the company’s lifeblood, until it began to run dry.
So, Mitchell got creative…
Beneath the field lay the Barnett Shale. In theory, the shale rock – much deeper than the company had drilled before – held a massive supply of natural gas. The problem was getting it out.
Shale is extremely compressed rock. It is packed so tightly it’s almost like plastic. At the time, the thought of drilling into it seemed absurd.
But in 1981, that’s what Mitchell did. He told his engineers to frack the shale rock directly. And he failed… over… and over… and over.
Investors grumbled. Engineers doubted him. Rivals called him delusional. Even his son tried to talk him out of it.
But Mitchell kept trying to crack the Barnett. He had no choice. He could either get the gas to flow or admit defeat and face bankruptcy. His company was bleeding cash, and the wells weren’t profitable…
Then, nearly 15 years later, a mistake changed everything.
A thin, watery frack mix down a well – a botched batch where the gel and chemicals hadn’t blended right… When the well came online, though, it flowed better than anything they’d seen.
Mitchell’s company worked out a simplified fracking formula – water, sand, and a trace of friction reducer. No gels. No thickeners. It was cheaper, faster, and didn’t make any sense on paper. But it worked.
The formation cracked open. The gas flowed. Everything changed.
That low-cost, half-accidental tweak became the spark of America’s shale boom. Slickwater fracking – the technique Mitchell’s company used in the Barnett – and horizontal drilling unlocked vast gas and oil reserves once thought unreachable.
Mitchell’s stubbornness rewrote the math and rewired the global energy map.
An Energy Revolution
It’s hard to overstate the significance of the “shale revolution” on global energy markets.
Many forget, but it wasn’t that long ago that the conversation around energy looked something like this:
Source: National Geographic
That was the cover story in National Geographic in June of 2004.
The article explained “peak oil,” the idea that the bulk of the world’s easily-accessible hydrocarbon reserves had already been discovered. Oil production had, or would soon, peak… and it would be a slow, painful decline from there.
But the decline never came…
Thanks to hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques I described earlier, previously unreachable shale reserves became viable.
And just like that, America had itself a shale boom.
We can see the impact clearly from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (“EIA”) accounting of U.S. crude oil production.
What jumps out is the surge in output starting in the 2010s. That’s what an energy revolution looks like.
As of 2023, the EIA estimates that around 64% of U.S. oil production comes from “tight-oil resources,” made accessible by hydraulic fracturing.
Source: EIA
This technology was arguably even more transformative for America’s now-booming natural gas industry.
Looking at the EIA data again: in 2021, the agency reported 27.9 trillion cubic feet of U.S. natural gas production from shale – up from just 1.3 trillion in 2007, the first year the agency began tracking it.
The result?
The United States became a net energy exporter in 2019, the first time the country achieved that milestone since the early 1950s.
I have little doubt that shale oil and gas will remain a central piece of America’s – and the world’s – energy mix for years to come. But while the shale revolution isn’t over, there areearly signs it may be slowing down.
The Warnings of Peak Oil Are Back?
Last month, the EIA made headlines when it announced something no one expected:
“Peak oil” could be back.
Here’s how Reuters covered the story:
U.S. oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027 and maintain that level through the end of the decade, before rapidly declining, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.
Oil output from the world’s largest producer will fall to about 11.3 million bpd in 2050, from around 13.7 million bpd this year, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy said in its Annual Energy Outlook.
If that estimate turns out to be correct, the timing couldn’t be worse.
Power demand is exploding.
Fueled by AI, data centers, and electric vehicles, the global energy appetite is surging.
In fact, just this March, the International Energy Agency reported:
The report finds that global energy demand rose by 2.2% last year – lower than GDP growth of 3.2% but considerably faster than the average annual demand increase of 1.3% between 2013 and 2023. Emerging and developing economies accounted for over 80% of the increase in global energy demand in 2024.
Among the biggest drivers?
AI, electrification of transport, and the rapid growth of hyperscale data centers.
In short:
The world needs more energy – now.
And I believe I know exactly where it might find it…
The Technology That Could Power America for 30,000 Years
What if I told you there was an energy source that could realistically power this country for 30,000 years with zero carbon emissions?
And before you ask:
It’s not nuclear.
It’s not solar or wind.
And it’s not some “pie in the sky” tech that’s 20 years away.
It’s a real power source already in use that, thanks to recent breakthroughs similar to fracking, it’s finally becoming scalable.
Even U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called it “an awesome resource.”
I wouldn’t blame you if you’re skeptical. But I assure you. It’s very real. In fact, I just traveled out to Utah to see it myself – and took a camera crew to document the evidence for you.
You need to get all the details before this goes mainstream on 60 Minutes or another major news outlet. You could get ahead on the stocks attached to this new resource – right here.
Regards,
Garett Baldwin,
Analyst, Commodity Supercycles