Brad’s Note

Two people can make the same investment... but end up with two drastically different outcomes. And it can all be traced to one simple mistake.

In this month's issue, Chief Analyst Adam Galas will share the story of two men: one, who faded into obscurity... and the other, who became the wealthiest person in the country.

They both had the same opportunity, but a mistake that snowballed into $200 billion sent them down different paths.

Adam will share the important lessons from this tale of two men and show you how today, we have a similar setup in the same industry that minted the world’s first billionaire: oil & gas.

By acting today, you could potentially double your returns in the next few years – all while earning a safe 6.4% dividend yield. Now is the time to learn from others' mistakes and take advantage of the discounted opportunity the market is giving us.

Happy SWAN (sleep well at night) investing,

Brad Thomas Editor, Fortress Portfolio

Growing up in the 1840s, one young boy had two goals: amass a fortune of $100,000 and celebrate his 100th birthday.

He only lived to 97… But he blew the first goal out of the water.

By the time he died in 1937, he was worth $400 billion (in today’s money). In fact, the word “billionaire” didn’t even exist until he became the first.

And he did it by avoiding one mistake – one that cost someone in a similar position $200 billion.

The man’s business partner, a chemical engineer named Samuel Andrews, didn’t share his success.

The reason you’ve likely never heard Andrews’s name is because he cashed out of the business early, selling his 16.7% stake for the equivalent of $34 million today.

That’s not bad… But as you’ve probably guessed, if he’d held on, that stake would be worth $200 billion.

Today, the company these men – along with three others – started has branched off into 43 other entities. Combined, they would join the ranks of the top 10 most valuable businesses on the planet.

That would put it ahead of Tesla, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, and Meta Platforms (Facebook).

I’m talking about Standard Oil Company. And the man who founded it – and is considered the wealthiest American of all time – is John D. Rockefeller.

By pulling the nation out of darkness, Rockefeller changed the destiny of millions of citizens… and created incredible wealth for multiple generations.

Today, we’ll take a page out of his playbook to create a similar situation for ourselves – and we’ll use this legendary tycoon’s favorite industry to do it.

Born the second of six children in rural New York, Rockefeller spent his youth helping his salesman father and studying bookkeeping. But his fortunes began changing in his 20s when he switched gears to business… And his focus was on solving one major problem.

Before the mid-18th century, productivity was limited to daylight hours for most people. When the sun stopped shining, Americans had to stop working.

That changed with oil lamps. Now, you could continue conducting business for longer. But at a price.

That’s because kerosene, which you needed to light oil lamps, cost 30 cents per gallon in 1870. Meanwhile, the average American's wages barely reached 15 cents per hour.

So Rockefeller teamed up with Andrews, Henry Flagler – another industrialist history will always remember – and a handful of others to create Standard Oil.

Their mission was simple. In Rockefeller’s own words: “We must ever remember we are refining oil for the poor man, and he must have it cheap and good.”

To achieve this, he introduced strategies that would allow them to repurpose or sell oil byproducts created in the refining process. This included petroleum jelly, gasoline, and tar.

He also brought services like pipe-laying in house. So instead of hiring outside workers, Standard Oil’s own plumbers cut the costs of laying pipelines in half. This helped undercut competitors and expand the business.

Steadily, Standard Oil became the biggest oil refiner in the country. At its height, it supplied 90% of America’s kerosene. And it brought down its cost about eight times, with a gallon going for 6 cents by 1900.

In 1905, Standard Oil was worth well over $1 trillion in today’s money.

Unfortunately for the company, it came under government scrutiny for monopolizing the market. And in 1911, the Supreme Court ruled it must dissolve into 43 separate entities under the Sherman Antitrust Act.

Some of today’s biggest oil companies formed as a result – including Chevron, Exxon, Mobil, and Amoco.

But Standard Oil had created massive wealth for Americans, especially for those who were there from the beginning.

Now, Andrews sold his stake in the company all the way back in 1874… Costing him $200 billion in the long run.

Meanwhile, Rockefeller led Standard Oil until 1896 and stayed its largest shareholder until his death in 1937.

And best of all for long-time shareholders, Standard Oil paid out nearly 66% of its profits as dividends.

In fact, Rockefeller was adamant when it came to dividends. One of his most well-known quotes is, “Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It's to see my dividends coming in.”

This combination made his worth an astounding $400 billion in today’s money. And it meant he owned 3% of America’s gross domestic product (GDP). That made him nearly twice as wealthy as Elon Musk, today’s richest person.

Rockefeller is beloved today for not only achieving this wealth, but also for choosing to distribute it – over $25 billion worth.

His philanthropy established foundations and universities… eradicated diseases like hookworm and yellow fever in two South American countries… funded medical education and scientific advancement… and much more.

That’s the power of a holding a blue-chip dividend company… vs. making the mistake of selling for a quick profit.

Today’s recommendation is an incredible dividend-paying company that could give us a Standard Oil-like opportunity. It’s following a similar path in the same industry that made Rockefeller the wealthiest person in America.

It offers a safe 6.4% safe dividend yield, is gobbling up competitors, and set to become a dominant player in its space.

And it can deliver 24% returns in just a few months.

At Fortress Portfolio, our goal is to construct a portfolio of the best buy-and-hold stocks that can help you reach your retirement goals. We base our research on years of testing and refining. And we use historical data, fundamental analysis, and economic projections to pinpoint which plays have the highest likelihood of surviving market volatility over the long term.

These stocks can keep our income rolling in, regardless of recessions, record-high inflation, interest rate hikes, or anything else the market or economy can throw at us.

And this recommendation has everything we look for in a stock to help us sleep well at night.

In today’s issue, I’ll tell you everything you need to know about it. So let’s get started…

A Little-Known Giant in the Oil & Gas Industry

Among Rockefeller’s arsenal for growing a refinery business, one tool held a special place: pipelines.

These conduits powered his empire, transporting the “black gold” from oilfields to refineries and finally to markets. This is why he made sure to include them under the Standard Oil umbrella.

His firm grip over pipelines was a vital launchpad that propelled Standard Oil into an industrial colossus.

Just as Rockefeller harnessed the might of pipelines, today, you can command the incredible potential of this sector with ONEOK (OKE), a titan of the pipeline industry.

We first recommended ONEOK in our May issue. (As a refresher, it’s purchasing one of our previous Fortress holdings, Magellan Midstream Partners. So we sold Magellan shares for a 24% gain and purchased ONEOK with the profits. We’re already up 3.3% since then. Today, I’m sharing a full writeup on this new recommendation.)

You may never have heard of ONEOK… But its expansive network, strategic locations, and strong financials are straight out of Rockefeller’s pipeline dominance playbook.

Founded in 1906, ONEOK is the third-oldest midstream company in the world.

There are three stages in the oil production operation. Upstream involves drilling for crude oil and extracting the raw materials. Downstream is refining the material for use. And midstream connects the two through processing, storing, and transportation.

ONEOK has survived through:

  • 22 recessions

  • Four depressions

  • Seven pandemics

  • Two World Wars

  • Inflation as high as 22%

  • Interest rates as high as 20%

  • 25 bear markets

  • Six historic oil crashes

  • Oil prices hitting -$38 per barrel in 2020

ONEOK is built to last and will probably survive many more economic upheavals.

As I explained briefly in the May issue, ONEOK is acquiring Magellan Midstream for $18.8 billion, the second-largest acquisition in industry history.

The resulting company will be a titan in the midstream space.

Source: ONEOK

When the deal closes in Q3 this year, the new ONEOK will own 12,000 miles of natural gas pipelines, 1,000 miles of oil pipelines, 100 storage terminals, and 1.5 billion barrels of storage capacity.

ONEOK will be a more diversified company, able to extract profit from five different parts of the oil & gas value chain.

But that’s just the beginning of the benefits to ONEOK and Fortress Portfolio shareholders.

ONEOK is going to be 11% more profitable from day one, thanks to Magellan’s wide moat refined product pipelines.

Refined products like oil, diesel, and jet fuel are a highly stable but no-growth industry. As a result, no one wants to spend the tens of billions it would take to recreate Magellan’s refined product pipeline network in the Midwest.

Meaning there’s a very slim chance it’ll face competitors.

The profitability of those pipelines is so high that Magellan has been the most profitable midstream in America for 20 years. And now ONEOK will own those cash-rich assets.

But here’s what should really get ONEOK investors excited.

ONEOK has a safe 6.4% yield that’s about to get much safer.

A Win-Win Scenario for ONEOK

You see, despite four major oil crashes, ONEOK hasn’t cut its dividend in 34 years.

Add in Magellan’s cash-rich pipelines… and ONEOK’s free cash flow (FCF) is going to grow from $1 billion per year to $4 billion overnight.

That will reduce its FCF payout ratio to 56% and its distributable cash flow (DCF) payout ratio to just 49%. For context, rating agencies consider an 83% or lower DCF payout ratio safe and anything under 100% on FCF payout ratios safe.

That will make ONEOK not just equity self-funding but FCF self-funding. That’s the platinum standard of safety in this industry. It means ONEOK will never have to sell any more shares (like utilities usually due) or even issue new debt to grow.

You might have heard about how during the oil crash of 2014 to 2016, a lot of pipeline stocks slashed their dividends. That included the largest, Kinder Morgan, which cut by 75%.

That was because they were dangerously reliant on debt and had to sell shares to fund their growth.

In fact, some pipeline companies had debt/cash flow (leverage) ratios of 7 or even 8 before that crisis began. Rating agencies consider 5 or less safe for this utility-like business with long-term contracted revenue. 

ONEOK has a leverage ratio of 3.5 right now. And once the deal closes, it will rise to a still safe 4. By 2026, management plans to get it back down to 3.5, one of the lowest levels in the industry.

S&P rates ONEOK a BBB, meaning it gives it a 7.5% chance of going bankrupt in the next 30 years. The agency might upgrade ONEOK to BBB+, the second best credit rating in the industry, if it achieves that 3.5 leverage ratio goal.

But the bond market, the “smart money” on Wall Street, is already pricing in ONEOK’s long-term bankruptcy risk at 3.84%. That is consistent with BBB+ rated companies (5% bankruptcy risk). And puts it on the positive watch for an upgrade to an A- rating (2.5% bankruptcy risk).

Rating agencies like this deal, the bond market loves this deal, and dividend growth investors should, too.

Because not only does ONEOK offer one of the world’s safest 6.4% yields, but this deal is so sweet for ONEOK that it turns it into a great stock to have in a retirement-oriented portfolio.

ONEOK was able to put together some great potential cost savings and tax benefits in this deal.

Management estimates the value of long-term cost savings that kick in on day one is $3.7 billion. The value of likely future savings, including tax savings, is another $3.4 billion. That’s a total $7.1 billion in tax and cost savings.

That’s already 38% of the purchase price. Meaning instead of buying Magellan at a fair price, ONEOK might be able to buy it at a 46% discount, factoring in ONEOK’s current share price.

ONEOK could buy the most profitable pipeline assets in the industry for just $12 billion – or 7.3 times cash-adjusted earnings.

That’s almost 50% less than private equity deals are closing today.

John Rockefeller was a ruthless business tycoon legendary for squeezing rivals to get the best deal possible. Well, ONEOK is managing to get a Rockefeller-like deal without screwing over Magellan investors, who must vote for this deal to go through.

Right now, the stock market estimates a 92% chance of that happening.

Even if it doesn’t, ONEOK is still an incredible company with a safe 6.4% yield and long-term expected growth of 6.3%.

That means 12.8% long-term return potential, which is the same as Warren Buffett’s unlevered returns for the last 58 years.

But if the deal goes through? Then management believes it could accelerate long-term growth by over 20%, from 6.3% to 7.6% or slightly more.

That gives us 14% to 15% long-term return potential and long-term income growth of 7% to 15%, depending on whether you reinvest the dividends or spend them.

It’s good enough to double your money every five years and quadruple it every decade.

So not only does that beat the Nasdaq’s 13.5% annual returns… But it does so while earning a 6.4% yield compared to the Nasdaq’s 0.8% yield.

That’s a setup I’m happy to act on any day.

Buying at a Fair Price Makes All the Difference

ONEOK’s historical fair value is $65.30 per share. Right now, it’s trading around $59.80. That gives us an 8% discount.  

The S&P and Nasdaq are also 8% undervalued right now, while the broader market is 10% to 11% overvalued.

What does that mean for income growth investors like ourselves?

The potential to double your money every five years if management delivers on its cost-cutting targets.

That 14% to 15% long-term return guidance from management is equal to the company’s 13% to 15% historical returns since 1985.

And in case you’re wondering how an oil and gas pipeline company can hope to grow at 7% to 8% long-term when oil demand is expected to decline over time… here are some catalysts ONEOK is working on.

By 2030, almost 40% of all world oil will be used in petrochemicals that go into plastics. Plastics are found in 96% of all products made on Earth, including green energy products like wind turbine blades and electric cars.

44% of ONEOK’s business will be natural gas liquids, which are the building blocks of petrochemicals that go into plastics. And demand for them is exploding in emerging markets like China and India.

ONEOK is also planning for a future without gasoline or diesel demand via carbon sequestration, which involves piping carbon dioxide into oil wells.

For decades, oil companies have been doing this in what’s called enhanced oil recovery. The CO2 injected into wells increases pressure and the percentage of oil recovered, reducing costs and maximizing profits.

Occidental Petroleum, Warren Buffett’s favorite oil company, is the industry leader in enhanced oil recovery. And ONEOK is planning on getting involved, too.

In addition to carbon sequestration, which will use ONEOK’s pipelines, there’s hydrogen. It’s a key resource for refineries – and other industries – to stimulate chemical reactions. Cummins estimates hydrogen could be a $3.5 trillion global market by 2030.

There are also biofuels like jet fuel, which is the only way we can fly jets since electric jets are impractical.

There’s also renewable natural gas, or RNG, which captures methane from landfills and dairies where cows produce it.

As you can see, ONEOK is not a one-trick pony. It has an eye toward major trends of the future – including the shift to green energy – and is dipping its feet into as many it believes will be profitable in the long run.

According to S&P, ONEOK’s overall long-term risk management is in the 89th percentile of all globally rated companies. That’s not just the top 11% of pipeline companies but the top 11% of all 8,000 companies S&P rates.

This is how ONEOK offers a very safe 6.4% yield today and potentially 13% to 15% long-term returns, doubling your money every five years for decades to come.

Risk Profile: What Could Go Wrong with The Investment Thesis

Currently, there is an 8% chance shareholders don’t approve the deal of both companies and regulators.

The biggest risk is from Magellan investors like Energy Income Partners, which owns 3% of Magellan. The reason some Magellan investors are upset isn’t that they are getting a bad price, it’s the tax bill.

Long-term owners of master limited partnerships (MLPs) like Magellan must pay depreciation recapture and unrelated business taxable income if a corporation acquires them.

For some big investors, the tax bill is more than the premium they are getting on Magellan, and thus they are voting no.

However, the deal is so beneficial to both sides that it’s unlikely Magellan investors will torpedo it.

And even if it doesn’t go through, we still own a safe 6.4%-yielding stock that’s growing 6% to 7% over time with ONEOK. One that has a rock-solid balance sheet and long-term risk management in the top 11% of the world’s companies.

With a recession still on the horizon (which I’ll cover in the Economic Update section below), we want to make sure we’re armed with the best, most resilient companies.

And with ONEOK, we’re confident in its dividend safety and long-term durability. Because unless we get an oil crash that’s even worse than -$38 (like we saw in 2020), this battle-tested dividend powerhouse is a name you can trust.

Other risks to the thesis include regulatory risk from the government and project execution risk. When ONEOK tries to build a long pipeline that crosses several states, environmentalists usually sue to block it.

Over time, ONEOK usually wins those cases. That’s another reason it has an 89th percentile risk-management rating from S&P. But such delays can be costly and could result in slower-than-expected growth.

The biggest long-term risk is ONEOK’s execution of its green energy transition plan. While oil & gas is expected to power most of the world’s energy mix through at least 2050… At some point, ONEOK is going to have to build out its green energy plans to replace the revenue it’s currently getting from oil & gas assets.

We look forward to seeing that happen. And until then, we’ll continue to hold and collect a generous dividend.

Bottom Line on ONEOK

John D. Rockefeller loved dividends with a passion because they let him live his dreams without selling the shares of his oil companies. It’s the difference between ending up with $34 million, like Samuel Andrews, and $400 billion like Rockefeller did.

ONEOK is a 6.4%-yielding oil company cut by the same cloth as Rockefeller’s leadership strategy. It hasn’t cut its dividend in 34 years.  

Its acquisition of Magellan is poised to make it the industry growth leader. And it could potentially double investors’ money every five years for decades, just as it’s done for the last 33 years.

That’s why we’re happy to buy it and hold it as part of our Fortress Portfolio.

Action to Take: Buy shares of ONEOK (OKE) Buy-up-to Price: $65.30 Position Sizing: 4.4% of your Fortress Portfolio. Or up to 20% in an individual portfolio. Risk Management: 30% hard stop loss ($40.04 for our tracking purposes)

Economic Update

In this section, I’ll share what all the data I constantly follow is saying about the state of the economy looking forward.

Then I’ll share what it means for us at Fortress.

A recession is now potentially two weeks away, with some economic data indicating we might have been in recession for as long as six months. (I wrote about this in a recent Intelligent Income Daily article.)

The $9 trillion in stimulus the government unleashed during the pandemic, which studies indicate was 60% larger than required, has kept consumers floating on an ocean of excess savings that have been steadily spent down.

However, those savings are expected to be gone by the end of the year.

On top of that, credit card usage has been rising back to pre-pandemic levels. Thanks to the Fed’s 5% rate hikes in 14 months, credit card rates now average 20%, the highest levels in recorded history.

Loan delinquencies are rising, though still merely approaching pre-pandemic levels.

Commercial real estate loan losses are expected to hit about $120 billion in the coming recession. Deutsche Bank thinks loan default rates will almost triple from 4% to 11%. They have almost tripled from 1.5% at the pandemic low.

For context, this is a similar default level as during the Great Recession.

Fortunately, the regional banking crisis appears to be improving, with the amount of emergency borrowing by banks from the Fed slowly drifting lower from its peak of $400 billion in the first week of March.

Overall financial stress remains below long-term averages according to the St. Louis Fed’s financial stress index and Chicago Fed’s National Conditions Index.

These track 123 weekly financial metrics and the only troubling sign now is that the leverage subindex (shadow banking and overall loan losses) has soared to levels consistent with historically average recessions.

For now, analysts expect slightly positive earnings in 2023 despite the consensus of a mild recession starting in Q3 (July).

However, bank lending data, as well as Goldman Sachs, Piper Sandler, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley, expect between a 10% to 20% earnings-per-share (EPS) contraction in the coming recession.

That is consistent with historical recessions, none of which have had positive earnings growth for the S&P 500. (The only time was during WWII when government spending helped generate positive EPS growth.)

This bodes very poorly for the stock market in the short term, which is trading at almost 19 times forward earnings, an 11% historical premium. That’s pricing in the highly unlikely 2% earnings growth that analysts currently expect.

Factor in the average historical 13% recessionary earnings decline, and the stock market is trading at 20.3 times forward earnings and is more than 20% overvalued.

Here’s what we can expect based on past occurrences…

Source: FactSet Research Terminal

The blue-chip consensus expects stocks to bottom 20% to 30% lower than current levels between 3,000 and 3,300 on the S&P 500.

This would be similar to what happened during the 1946 bear market.

Stocks fell 28% and then bottomed, climbing 24% over 18 months. Before the recession hit earnings, stocks fell 30% to fresh lows.

That was a historically average recession and bear market, and this recession is likely to be mild to average with an average bear market peak decline from record highs of 33% to 36%.

It will not feel average; no bear market does.

But unlike regular investors, we don’t need to be worried about what kind of recession will hit and what its impact will be.

Scenarios like this are why Fortress invests 33% of its portfolio in the best hedging strategy in history: long-duration U.S. Treasurys and managed futures.

By including these hedging strategies in our overall portfolio, we’re equipped to withstand market setbacks.

As you can see in the chart above, the last few times we went into a recession (a stock market decline of 20% or more), long bonds and managed futures greatly outperformed the broad market. (The only exception was long bond performance in 2022, thanks to a high inflation and interest rate hike combo.)

So we’ll continue to hold on to our market-beating plays… And we’ll rest easily knowing we have a well-rounded portfolio protecting our wealth.

Portfolio Update

In this section, I’ll cover the latest with our portfolio companies.

And every week, I share a video update on the overall state of the economy.

The topics range from debt ceiling deadline fears… likelihood of a recession… what interest rate hikes could look like and what they’ll mean… inflation and jobs number breakdowns… the little-known factors impacting our economy… and much more.

Make sure to follow along there to catch up on the latest and see how it could affect your wealth and how our Fortress Portfolio should be resilient against the worst setbacks the markets can throw at us.

This month’s only update of note is that Canadian home prices have fallen 8.5% over the past year, their largest year-over-year decline in recorded history (going back to 2000).

That’s after coming off the fastest year-over-year increase in history, 19.4% in late 2022.

We’re closely monitoring the situation with Canadian banks and home loan losses but are not very concerned for our Canadian bank holding Toronto-Dominion (TD). Here’s why.

The average Canadian mortgage has a FICO score of 700, which is good. And the average downpayment is 35%.

In the US, the average mortgage FICO score is 714. And the average down payment is 5% (33% of all homes are paid for in cash).

When a homeowner can’t afford their mortgage, Canadian regulators require banks to work with them to extend the loan and create a revised payment plan to minimize foreclosure. This prevents death spirals of foreclosed homes from hitting the market and driving prices down even further.

In addition, Canada has a very aggressive immigration program that brought in 431,645 new residents in 2022. That was 25% more than in 2021.

Just like in the US, there is a severe shortage of construction workers and home builders can’t keep up with demand. Thus, high demand is likely to put a relatively high floor under Canadian home prices, preventing anything like the kind of residential home price crash-induced financial meltdown the U.S. experienced in 2008.

Finally, Canadian banks don’t leverage subprime mortgages (which are just 12% of Canadian mortgages) using derivatives as U.S. banks did and nearly blew up the global economy.

If you hear rumors of a Canadian housing crash that will topple Canadian banks and financials (like Manulife)… rest assured these are scare-mongering rumors not based in fact.

We’re closely monitoring the situation via FactSet, Bloomberg, hundreds of analysts, five rating agencies, the bond market, and our 3,000-point safety and quality model.

If there is a true cause for concern, will we know about it, and so will you.

Upcoming Fortress Dividends

Subscriber Questions

I welcome your questions and will try to answer as many as I can in the weekly update videos and these monthly newsletters.

Just remember I can’t give individual investment advice. But I can provide information and general guidance for the average investor. Write in with your questions here.

Just wanted to drop a note and thank you for your sage recommendations and Fortress Portfolio video updates. Your video updates are just what I need from week to week to keep me from staying awake at night (ha). Just out of curiosity, is PQTAX a mutual fund or ETF? And are there any other substitutes, as I am not able to invest via my current investment account? Thanks again for everything. – Christopher K.

Answer: Thanks, Christopher. This is a good question.

We selected the PIMCO Trends Managed Futures Strategy Fund Class A (PQTAX) because it’s the lowest volatility-managed futures fund available that’s still 5-star rated by Morningstar (in its institutional form). 

There are many mutual fund and exchange-traded (ETF) alternatives, including four promising or proven ETFs.

If you’re looking for an ETF alternative to PQTAX, there are four main ones I can direct your attention to.

The iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) is the “vanguard of managed futures.” It tracks the Soc Gen CTA index, the 20 largest managed futures funds (including Pimco, AQR, and Alpha Simplex). 

The Return Stacked Bonds & Managed Futures ETF (RSBT) tracks the Soc Gen CTA trend following the index. It then uses 100% leverage to stack bond returns on top of this.

Historically, the strategy has resulted in around 11% to 12% long-term returns. Though, this brand-new ETF (launched on February 6 this year) has been battered by the most volatile bond yields in history so far. 

I personally wouldn’t replace PQTAX with a brand-new ETF like RSBT – or even the Simplify Managed Futures ETF (CTA), which is the only monthly paying managed futures fund and I’ll tell you more about in a moment. 

That’s because the tech melt-up has caused RSBT to go load up on stocks in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. If the market dives quickly rather than slowly, then the heavy stock exposure will offset the benefits of being long bonds.

CTA tracks U.S. and Canadian bonds, currencies, and commodities. It tends to be more volatile. Prior to the banking crisis, it was up 8% and then fell 18% in five days.

But if you’re looking for a promising watchlist candidate that pays monthly, it’s worth keeping an eye on.

The KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (KMLM) is the top ETF alternative because it tracks the Mount Lucas index, the oldest managed futures index on Wall Street. 

Mount Lucas only owns 22 options, currencies, bonds, and commodities – not stocks. That makes it less correlated to the stock market. And historically, it’s delivered the best returns of any managed futures index at 9.4% (0.95% expense ratio means 8.5% historical returns if KMLM had existed since 1988). 

Just keep in mind that, as you can see above, even hedges can suffer at times. KMLM’s index fell 28% at one point during the industry’s worst bear market in history (2016 to 2019). 

Managed futures are trend followers. And when there is a strong trend, such as during bear markets, recessions, and stagflation, they shine. When there is no trend (like right now), they suffer.

KMLM has held up the best among all its peers in these hyper-volatile interest rate times. In fact, KMLM has nearly kept up with the S&P 500 since February 6, up 4.6%, while the market is up 6.2%. No other hedging ETF or fund has come close to doing that.

Given the historical powerhouse returns of KMLM’s index since 1988 (almost as good as the S&P) and its stellar performance in this crazy post-bank crisis bond environment… I consider it a great alternative if you’re unable to purchase PQTAX where you live.

Safe investing,

Adam GalasChief Editor, Fortress Portfolio