The commercial real estate (CRE) news out this year has been fairly convoluted, even seeming to contradict itself at times.

Hotels are doing great… except when they’re not.

Real estate prices are rising… sort of.

And funding is ramping up… or is it?

As such, the latest Q3 2026 Burns + CRE Daily Fear & Greed Index is worth pointing out. CRE itself notes about the findings that investors are “stuck between a desire to deploy capital and market conditions that still make deals difficult” to fully justify.

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Investors are still adding more exposure than they’re cutting, but enthusiasm for the next six months continues to fade. Just 37% [of survey participants] expect to increase CRE exposure, the lowest share in the survey’s history, while 53% expect to hold steady.

Not surprisingly, the biggest reason they’re hesitating is because of interest rates. We had all, of course, hoped that those would be down at least a notch or two by now. Instead, we’re discussing whether rates might still rise over the remainder of the year.

Christopher Phelan, one of President Trump’s economic advisors, told Breitbart News this week that “inflation is a bit higher than we would like” but that it’s “coming down.” Therefore, the way he sees it, there’s “no reason to raise rates.”

Of course, that’s the president’s position as well. And Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is supposed to be his guy. But as we near the next Open Market Committee, it’s likely we’ll simply see another hold.

In which case, I expect many CRE investors will do the same.

“EVs are the end game”

I wrote about BMW on Wednesday and how it will have a total of six electric vehicles – not hybrids, but full-on EVs – available to the U.S. market soon enough. And I said that was a plus for investors considering the beleaguered stock.

(It’s down 33% year to date.)

This isn’t to say I’m against traditional gasoline-powered models, for the record. I drive one, after all. But I do think there’s a place for both in these increasingly high-tech times.

GM (GM) CEO Mary Barra agrees with me on that. In fact, she recently told Fortune Editor-in-Chief Alyson Shontell that she thinks we’re moving toward an EV-only future – a reiteration of her comments to Automotive Press Association attendees back in January.

EV sales have slowed significantly since Trump removed Biden’s $7,500 tax credit last year. As such:

  • Ford (F) has slashed its associated budget significantly, though not entirely.

  • Honda will no longer make its Prologue EV after this year’s model, switching its eco-friendly focus back to hybrids.

  • Stellantis (STLA) has scaled back its programs as well.

And while GM itself has delayed its next-generation EV trucks and SUVs indefinitely, Barra still says gasless cars “are the end game.”

Obviously, changes in presidential administrations and congressional majorities could put the ball back in EVs’ court. But she also thinks that better infrastructure buildouts (when they happen) will re-incentivize buyers regardless.

That might take some time, she acknowledges. However, Barra wants her company to be ready to jump on reopened opportunities as soon as they’re available. So we’ll see how that continuing bet pays off…

Kenya’s rare earths open up

Kenya has been soliciting bids for its Mrima Hill deposit, a coastal stretch that could include tens of billions of dollars’ worth of rare earth metals. And it may have just inked an official deal with the U.S. to mine it – though exact details about the operation haven’t yet emerged.

This is part of Trump’s ongoing effort to become less reliant on China, which currently controls an enormous chunk of the market. These minerals are critical for creating computers, phones, modern-day cars with their advanced electronics, military communications systems, fiber optics, x-ray imaging, LED lighting…

The list goes on from there. Yet as I wrote in June:

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… over 71% of our rare earth imports came from China alone last year… That’s why the Trump administration has been busy making deals with friendlier international entities such as the EU, Japan, and Mexico to bolster U.S. supply.

And now, apparently, Kenya as well.

Kenyan President William Ruto welcomed U.S. partnership in this regard for the jobs it will create, adding, “We are accelerating the responsible exploration and development of rare-earth elements, titanium, graphite, lithium, niobium, and other strategic resources.”

Earlier this year, the Trump administration enlisted both the University of Nevada and Georgia Tech Research Corp. to research rare earth pockets here in the U.S. And as I also wrote in June, “the G7 nations… pledged to reduce their collective dependence on Chinese minerals” as well.

These admirable efforts should make a huge difference in the U.S. supply chain – though it will take years to see the results.

Happy SWAN investing!

Brad Thomas
Editor, The Wide Moat Daily