I’m Still Not Worried About Trump’s Tariffs

I wouldn’t blame you one bit for feeling queasy from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. They have become quite the roller-coaster ride.

Tariffs are on; then they’re off. They’re raised; then they’re lowered. They’re put into effect; then they’re delayed.

And the markets overreact every single time. You’d think they might learn one of these days, but so far, we have no such luck.

The latest news has to do with the original “Liberation Day” tariffs. First announced on April 2, they were largely paused the following week.

According to Trump, apart from a universal 10% levy, he would wait 90 days to encourage negotiations. All were welcome to come to the table.

For that matter, all were expected to come to the table. Trump’s trade advisor, Peter Navarro, even predicted “90 deals in 90 days.”

Yet, three months later, there have only been three: with the U.K., Vietnam, and China. And there’s still plenty of trade tension to sort out with China, as we all know.

According to Trump, there is a lot of good news, though. The U.S. has “more than 90” trade proposals and is “close to making a deal with India,” he declared earlier this week. “Others we met with, and we don’t think we’re going to be able to make a deal. So we just send them a letter.”

Those that got a letter – including Japan – and those that are close (or supposedly close) to finishing up deals now have until August 1 before full tariff plans go into effect.

So, the clock is pushed forward once again… meaning we’re very likely to see another round (or more) of market panic before the summer ends.

Here’s why I think you should be smiling through this crazy ride anyway.

Bringing Jobs and Production Back to America

First off, Trump’s tariffs are already working.

No, that’s not an excuse for his administration’s failed “90 deals in 90 days” prediction. When you’re wrong, you’re wrong. And it’s abundantly clear they were wrong.

But it’s also worth remembering how companies and countries have already pledged trillions of dollars toward growing their American bases.

I’ve written about this a few times now, most recently on June 25, where I reminded readers about the:

• $1.4 trillion for technology, aerospace, and energy investments from the United Arab Emirates

• $1.2 trillion for technology and manufacturing from Qatar

• $600 billion from Saudi Arabia for more of the same

• A pooled $500 billion for artificial intelligence (AI) from Softbank, OpenAi, and Oracle

• $500 billion for AI infrastructure and supercomputers from Nvidia

• $500 billion from Apple for AI manufacturing and training centers

• $200 billion from Micron for semiconductor manufacturing and research and development

• $150 billion from IBM for growth and manufacturing operations

• $100 billion from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to build a semiconductor fabrication center in Phoenix, Arizona

That amounts to “$2.6 trillion of incoming investments, with another $405.4 billion from a growing list of companies like Johnson & Johnson, Bristol Myers Squibb, Amazon, Eli Lilly, ADQ, Novartis, and Hyundai.”

That will all lead to more American jobs, more American income, and more incentives still to build in America. It’s a beautiful economic cycle, and one Trump is deliberately, methodically, and successfully pursuing.

Case in point: Despite dire forecasts for economic devastation due to Trump’s tariffs and immigration policies, the U.S. already added 782,000 jobs so far this year. And while that’s less than the 985,000 added last year… the June figures were well above expectations – 147,000 versus the expected 110,00.

The unemployment rate dropped, too – to about 4.1%, beating the forecast of about 4.3%.

If you’re worried about massive jobs destruction, there’s absolutely no evidence of it yet.

An Interest in Inflation

Along with predictions for abysmal jobs numbers, naysayers have been predicting inflation to pick up. But so far, that hasn’t happened either.

While it spiked from 2.4% (year over year) in September 2024 to 3% in January 2025, inflation fell to 2.8% after Trump’s first full month in office…

2.4% in March…

And 2.3% in April.

It did bounce back to 2.4% in May, but that’s hardly the catastrophe dissenters keep calling for. One of those sources, CNBC, even had to admit that:

Weakness in energy prices helped offset some of the increases [elsewhere], and a handful of other key items expected to show tariff-related jumps, vehicle and apparel prices in particular, actually posted declines.

There are multiple reasons why that would be, including how manufacturers and retailers often eat at least some of the cost from tariffs, inflation, and other business burdens in order to stay competitive. But there’s also the fact that Trump has strategically worked to lower energy prices.

Gasoline (and diesel, in particular) costs are an enormous part of the final price tag consumers pay at the store. After all, every single item consumers buy was – at one point – transported on a ship, truck, train, plane, or all four. That cost works its way to the price you see on the shelves.

So, if Trump can continue keeping those down, any uptick in inflation should stay marginal.

Another factor to consider is interest rates. As I shared in several recent issues, the Federal Reserve is still in “wait and see” mode. So, there’s almost no chance we’ll see the Fed change that stance later this month.

But it will have to eventually accept the positive economic data coming in – I imagine before the year is up. Lowered interest rates mean lessened debt burdens, allowing businesses to buy more equipment, grow their advertising platforms, hire more workers, and acquire new buildings more easily.

That day is coming. And when it does, the stock market should react positively enough for you to forget about all this tariff drama.

In the meantime, keep in mind that we’ve survived so far through Trump’s tariffs… that he continues to defy all the negative predictions about economic collapse… and that our future is filled with economic expansion that’s being unlocked even as we speak.

That’s why I’m going to keep smiling no matter how the markets react in the short term.

I hope you do, too.

Regards,

Brad Thomas
Editor, Wide Moat Daily